In a holiday-shortened week, FIIs
were net sellers of equity on Mon. and Tue. (Apr 27 and 28) but net buyers on the next two days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 16.52 Billion. DIIs
were net buyers of equity on all four trading days, worth Rs 28.96 Billion, as per provisional figures.
Interestingly, during Apr '20, FIIs and DIIs were both net sellers of equity - worth Rs 52.1 Billion and Rs 1.2 Billion respectively. Wonder who bought during the sharp month-long counter-trend rally!
India's core sector output contracted 6.5% in Mar '20 - its worst performance in nearly 15 years - against growth of 7.2% in Feb '20. During FY 2019-20, infrastructure industries grew just 0.6% against 4.4% during FY 2018-19.
Top automobile makers like Maruti, M&M, Hyundai, Toyota, MG, Royal Enfield reported nil domestic sales during Apr '20, as their operations remained suspended due to the lockdown since Mar 25th to prevent the spread of the corona virus.
BSE Sensex index chart pattern
The daily bar chart pattern of Sensex broke out above the 'rising wedge' pattern with an upward 'gap' on Apr 30. The bearish pattern has been negated, thanks to combined FII and DII buying.
The index closed above its 50 day EMA after more than a month, and gained almost 2400 points (7.6%) on a weekly closing basis. Is it time for bulls to celebrate? Not quite. Note that the 200 day EMA is still falling, and the index is trading well below it. That is a sign of a bear market.
Bear market rallies tend to be fast and furious - and the rally during April has certainly been sharp. Many small investors with no experience of a bear market may have jumped in to 'buy the dip'. They will save themselves a lot of heartburn by maintaining tight stop-losses, or by booking profit.
Daily technical indicators are giving mixed signals. MACD is rising above its signal line and reached its neutral zone. RSI has crossed above its 50% level to enter bullish zone. Slow stochastic has re-entered its overbought zone, and can trigger a pullback inside the 'wedge'.
By extending the virus lockdown by a further two weeks through an utterly confusing order, the government has kicked the problem down the road with no clear plan of what to do next - leaving state governments and individuals to fend for themselves.
There is every possibility that FIIs will unleash a fresh bout of selling in May '20. They have been net sellers of equity for four straight months, though the volume of selling in Apr '20 was much lower than in Mar '20. Staying on the sidelines may be a good idea till the lockdown finally ends.
NSE Nifty index chart pattern
The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty broke out above the 'rising wedge' and gained more than 700 points (7.7%) on a weekly closing basis, but closed below its 200 week EMA for the 8th straight week.
The 20 week EMA has crossed below the 200 week EMA for the first time in 9 years. All three weekly EMAs continue to fall, which is a sign of a long-term bear market. The 'death cross' of the 50 week EMA below the 200 week EMA - which will technically confirm a long-term bear market - is still awaited.
The sharp counter-trend rally on Nifty chart from the Mar '20 low of 7511 gained momentum as FIIs and DIIs were in buying mode during the week. An unexpected upward breakout has negated the bearish 'rising wedge' pattern.
Weekly technical indicators are giving bullish signals. MACD is below its signal line inside its oversold zone, but has formed a small bullish 'rounding bottom' pattern. RSI is rising in bearish zone. Slow stochastic has risen sharply to enter its overbought zone, and can trigger a pullback.
Nifty's TTM P/E has moved up to 22.35 - its highest level during Apr '20 - which is above its long-term average and in overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is in its neutral zone, hinting at some near-term index consolidation or a correction.
Bottomline? Sensex and Nifty charts are trading below their respective 200 day and 200 week EMAs in bear markets. Extension of the corona virus lockdown will most likely push an already weak economy into a recession. Small investors can continue with their SIPs, but should sit on cash till a clear path to normalcy is visible.
Interestingly, during Apr '20, FIIs and DIIs were both net sellers of equity - worth Rs 52.1 Billion and Rs 1.2 Billion respectively. Wonder who bought during the sharp month-long counter-trend rally!
India's core sector output contracted 6.5% in Mar '20 - its worst performance in nearly 15 years - against growth of 7.2% in Feb '20. During FY 2019-20, infrastructure industries grew just 0.6% against 4.4% during FY 2018-19.
Top automobile makers like Maruti, M&M, Hyundai, Toyota, MG, Royal Enfield reported nil domestic sales during Apr '20, as their operations remained suspended due to the lockdown since Mar 25th to prevent the spread of the corona virus.
BSE Sensex index chart pattern
The daily bar chart pattern of Sensex broke out above the 'rising wedge' pattern with an upward 'gap' on Apr 30. The bearish pattern has been negated, thanks to combined FII and DII buying.
The index closed above its 50 day EMA after more than a month, and gained almost 2400 points (7.6%) on a weekly closing basis. Is it time for bulls to celebrate? Not quite. Note that the 200 day EMA is still falling, and the index is trading well below it. That is a sign of a bear market.
Bear market rallies tend to be fast and furious - and the rally during April has certainly been sharp. Many small investors with no experience of a bear market may have jumped in to 'buy the dip'. They will save themselves a lot of heartburn by maintaining tight stop-losses, or by booking profit.
Daily technical indicators are giving mixed signals. MACD is rising above its signal line and reached its neutral zone. RSI has crossed above its 50% level to enter bullish zone. Slow stochastic has re-entered its overbought zone, and can trigger a pullback inside the 'wedge'.
By extending the virus lockdown by a further two weeks through an utterly confusing order, the government has kicked the problem down the road with no clear plan of what to do next - leaving state governments and individuals to fend for themselves.
There is every possibility that FIIs will unleash a fresh bout of selling in May '20. They have been net sellers of equity for four straight months, though the volume of selling in Apr '20 was much lower than in Mar '20. Staying on the sidelines may be a good idea till the lockdown finally ends.
NSE Nifty index chart pattern
The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty broke out above the 'rising wedge' and gained more than 700 points (7.7%) on a weekly closing basis, but closed below its 200 week EMA for the 8th straight week.
The 20 week EMA has crossed below the 200 week EMA for the first time in 9 years. All three weekly EMAs continue to fall, which is a sign of a long-term bear market. The 'death cross' of the 50 week EMA below the 200 week EMA - which will technically confirm a long-term bear market - is still awaited.
The sharp counter-trend rally on Nifty chart from the Mar '20 low of 7511 gained momentum as FIIs and DIIs were in buying mode during the week. An unexpected upward breakout has negated the bearish 'rising wedge' pattern.
Weekly technical indicators are giving bullish signals. MACD is below its signal line inside its oversold zone, but has formed a small bullish 'rounding bottom' pattern. RSI is rising in bearish zone. Slow stochastic has risen sharply to enter its overbought zone, and can trigger a pullback.
Nifty's TTM P/E has moved up to 22.35 - its highest level during Apr '20 - which is above its long-term average and in overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is in its neutral zone, hinting at some near-term index consolidation or a correction.
Bottomline? Sensex and Nifty charts are trading below their respective 200 day and 200 week EMAs in bear markets. Extension of the corona virus lockdown will most likely push an already weak economy into a recession. Small investors can continue with their SIPs, but should sit on cash till a clear path to normalcy is visible.
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