Saturday, January 18, 2020

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jan 17, 2020): touch new highs again

FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon., Wed. and Fri. (Jan 13, 15 and 17), but were net sellers on Tue. and Thu. (Jan 14 and 16). Their total net buying was worth only Rs 0.64 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on all five trading days of the week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 31.0 Billion - as per provisional figures.

India's exports fell by 1.8% in Dec '19 to US $27.36 Billion against $27.86 Billion in Dec '18. Imports fell by 8.8% in Dec '19 to $38.61 Billion against $42.35 Billion in Dec '18.

Sugar mills in the country produced 10.9 Million tonnes of sugar till Jan 15th, nearly 26% lower than the 14.7 Million tonnes produced in the same period in the previous year. Production in Maharashtra and Karnataka was affected by rains.

BSE Sensex index chart pattern


The daily bar chart pattern of Sensex breached the psychological 42000 level intra-day on Thu. and Fri. (Jan 16 and 17) - touching a new high of 42064 on Fri. - but failed to close above the 42000 level.

Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones. MACD is moving sideways above its signal line. RSI is also moving sideways above its 50% level. Slow stochastic is drifting down inside its overbought zone

Sensex is trading above its three rising EMAs in a bull market. However, all three technical indicators are showing negative divergences by failing to touch new highs with the index. Some more consolidation or correction may follow.

Q3 (Dec '19) results declared so far have been as per expectations. Bandhan Bank and RIL reported very good results. RIL's debt has ballooned to Rs 3 Trillion, which should be a matter of concern for investors and lenders.

The stock market seems to be expecting market-friendly announcements in the budget on Feb 1. Several mid-cap and small-cap stocks have started rising in anticipation. Small investors should be wary, because the current dispensation has not walked their market-friendly talk.

NSE Nifty index chart pattern



The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty had dropped sharply below a large 'rising wedge' pattern in the previous week, but had formed a 'reversal' bar (lower low, higher close) and bounced up to close inside the 'wedge'. The index traded inside the 'wedge' and touched a new intra-week (12389) and closing (12352) highs.

The index is trading well above its rising weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. However, formation of a bearish 'rising wedge' pattern at an index top should be treated with caution. The expected breakout from a 'rising wedge' pattern is downwards.

Weekly technical indicators are looking bullish and overbought. MACD is moving sideways above its rising signal line inside its overbought zone. ROC is showing negative divergence as it has crossed below its 10 week MA and dropped from its overbought zone. RSI and Slow stochastic are moving sideways inside their respective overbought zones. 

After touching a high of 28.67 at the beginning of the week, Nifty's TTM P/E has moved down a little bit to 28.61, but remains well above its long-term average in overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is rising inside its oversold zone, hinting at near-term index consolidation or some correction.

Bottomline? Sensex and Nifty charts touched new lifetime highs after brief corrections. The stock market celebrated a de-escalation in US-Iran tensions and seems to be anticipating market-friendly announcements in the forthcoming budget on Feb 1. For long-term wealth building, avoid the urge to buy near lifetime index tops.

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