Wednesday, January 1, 2020

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Jan 01, 2020)

For the month of Dec '19, FIIs were net buyers of equity worth Rs 6.9 Billion. It was their third straight month of net buying. DIIs were net sellers of equity during Dec '19. Their total net selling was worth Rs 7.4 Billion, as per provisional figures.

The slowdown in the economy has helped narrow India's Current Account Deficit (CAD) to US $6.3 Billion during Q2 (Sep '19) against $19.0 Billion during Q2 (Sep '18) and $14.2 Billion during Q1 (Jun '19). The trade deficit contracted due to slowdown in imports and lower oil prices.

During Apr-Nov '19, India's fiscal deficit touched Rs 8.1 Trillion, which was 114.8% of the budget estimate of Rs 7.03 Trillion for FY 2019-20. Due to a shortfall in revenue collection, government has asked all departments to restrict expenses to 25% of the budget estimate during Jan-Mar '20.


The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty had touched a new high of 12294 on Dec 20, but has been consolidating sideways within a 175 points range since then. The index is trading above its three rising EMAs in a bull market.

Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones but not showing any upward momentum. MACD has crossed below its signal line. RSI is moving sideways above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has slipped down from its overbought zone. 

Nifty's TTM P/E has moved down to 28.33, but remains well inside its overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is rising inside its oversold zone, hinting at some more near-term index consolidation.

Q3 (Dec '19) company results will start getting announced from next week. The results are unlikely to show much improvement over Q2 (Sep '19) results. Small investors should look out for the few companies that may announce positive surprises.

Any breach of the 20 day EMA can drop Nifty to its rising 50 day EMA, where it should find some support.

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