FIIs turned bulls, and were net buyers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 77.92 Billion. DIIs were net sellers on all five trading days, but couldn't keep pace with FII buying. Their total net selling was worth Rs 53.23 Billion.
Sensex gained almost 3% while Nifty gained nearly 2.7% on the back of strong buying by FIIs, who seem to have taken a particular fancy for RIL despite poor Q4 performance. A slew of international investment announcements into Jio platforms has made the company 'net debt free'.
A basket of penny stocks valued under Rs 5 - typically targeted by small retail investors - has outperformed the Sensex by a country mile. That is always a worrying sign for bulls.
BSE Sensex index chart pattern
The following comment was made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "On the upside, resistance can be expected from a 640 points downward 'gap' formed on Mar 6th."
The index closed higher on Mon. Jul 20th, but formed a small 'doji' pattern that hinted at indecision among bulls and bears. An upward 'gap' opening on Tue. Jul 21 belied bearish hopes. The index entered and closed inside the 640 points downward 'gap' formed on Mar 6th.
For the next three days, Sensex consolidated sideways and closed within the 'gap' - nearly filling it, but failed to overcome last-ditch resistance put up by bears.
Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones. MACD is moving sideways after merging with its signal line. ROC is also moving sideways after merging with its 10 day MA. RSI is seeking support from the edge of its overbought zone. Slow stochastic is moving sideways inside overbought zone.
The up trend line - drawn through Mar '20 and May '20 lows - remains intact. A 'golden cross' of the 50 day EMA above the 200 day EMA will technically confirm a return to a bull market. That seems a formality, now that FIIs have turned bulls.
If you have been waiting for a proper correction to enter, you may need to wait a little longer. If you were fortunate to enter the ongoing rally at lower levels, stay invested but maintain a trailing stop-loss to protect profits.
NSE Nifty index chart pattern
The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty closed above its three weekly EMAs for the third week in a row, and above the 11000 level for the first time since Mar 5 '20. Note the following comment from last week's post:
"On the upside, the 'support-resistance' zone between 11000-11250 can provide bullied bears a last opportunity to put up some resistance." The index tested the 11250 level during the week, and closed below 11200 inside the 'support-resistance' zone.
The 20 week EMA has crossed above the 200 week EMA after forming a bullish 'rounding bottom' pattern. The 50 week EMA is in the process of forming a 'rounding bottom' pattern.
Weekly technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD is rising above its signal line and is poised to enter bullish zone. RSI is gradually rising above its 50% level. Slow stochastic is moving sideways well inside its overbought zone.
Nifty's TTM P/E has moved up to 29.35, a lifetime high and deep inside its overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) has started rising in neutral zone, and can trigger some more consolidation or correction.
Bottomline? Ongoing rallies on Sensex and Nifty charts have stalled at resistance zones after re-entering bull territories. The rallies appear overly dependent on a single stock - RIL. It's a little late to jump into the bull bandwagon. Stay on the sidelines, but maintain trailing stop-losses to protect profits.
Sensex gained almost 3% while Nifty gained nearly 2.7% on the back of strong buying by FIIs, who seem to have taken a particular fancy for RIL despite poor Q4 performance. A slew of international investment announcements into Jio platforms has made the company 'net debt free'.
A basket of penny stocks valued under Rs 5 - typically targeted by small retail investors - has outperformed the Sensex by a country mile. That is always a worrying sign for bulls.
BSE Sensex index chart pattern
The following comment was made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "On the upside, resistance can be expected from a 640 points downward 'gap' formed on Mar 6th."
The index closed higher on Mon. Jul 20th, but formed a small 'doji' pattern that hinted at indecision among bulls and bears. An upward 'gap' opening on Tue. Jul 21 belied bearish hopes. The index entered and closed inside the 640 points downward 'gap' formed on Mar 6th.
For the next three days, Sensex consolidated sideways and closed within the 'gap' - nearly filling it, but failed to overcome last-ditch resistance put up by bears.
Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones. MACD is moving sideways after merging with its signal line. ROC is also moving sideways after merging with its 10 day MA. RSI is seeking support from the edge of its overbought zone. Slow stochastic is moving sideways inside overbought zone.
The up trend line - drawn through Mar '20 and May '20 lows - remains intact. A 'golden cross' of the 50 day EMA above the 200 day EMA will technically confirm a return to a bull market. That seems a formality, now that FIIs have turned bulls.
If you have been waiting for a proper correction to enter, you may need to wait a little longer. If you were fortunate to enter the ongoing rally at lower levels, stay invested but maintain a trailing stop-loss to protect profits.
NSE Nifty index chart pattern
The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty closed above its three weekly EMAs for the third week in a row, and above the 11000 level for the first time since Mar 5 '20. Note the following comment from last week's post:
"On the upside, the 'support-resistance' zone between 11000-11250 can provide bullied bears a last opportunity to put up some resistance." The index tested the 11250 level during the week, and closed below 11200 inside the 'support-resistance' zone.
The 20 week EMA has crossed above the 200 week EMA after forming a bullish 'rounding bottom' pattern. The 50 week EMA is in the process of forming a 'rounding bottom' pattern.
Weekly technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD is rising above its signal line and is poised to enter bullish zone. RSI is gradually rising above its 50% level. Slow stochastic is moving sideways well inside its overbought zone.
Nifty's TTM P/E has moved up to 29.35, a lifetime high and deep inside its overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) has started rising in neutral zone, and can trigger some more consolidation or correction.
Bottomline? Ongoing rallies on Sensex and Nifty charts have stalled at resistance zones after re-entering bull territories. The rallies appear overly dependent on a single stock - RIL. It's a little late to jump into the bull bandwagon. Stay on the sidelines, but maintain trailing stop-losses to protect profits.
2 comments:
Superb Analysis Subhankar. How are you doing?
I am planning to return to market after a gap of few years.
My regards.
Spandan
Good to hear from you, Spandan, and thanks for the kind words.
Welcome back to the market.
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