tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7148222695370746347.post2433559867052542417..comments2023-10-15T17:16:24.091+05:30Comments on Stock Market Charts | India Mutual Funds Investment: Stock Chart Pattern - Bartronics India (An Update)Subhankarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13248068905130821262noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7148222695370746347.post-45453711880986579962010-11-16T18:15:13.354+05:302010-11-16T18:15:13.354+05:30Negative cash flows from operations combined with ...Negative cash flows from operations combined with huge debt is a giveaway that the business model is not good (or, some hanky-panky is going on).<br /><br />Technically, the stock is at a long-term support at 100. If it breaks down, it can fall to 60.Subhankarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13248068905130821262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7148222695370746347.post-68586190618867402452010-11-16T17:14:21.399+05:302010-11-16T17:14:21.399+05:30this stock has faced a 50% loss in q2 profit on Yo...this stock has faced a 50% loss in q2 profit on YoY basis. 16.5cr this year q2 from 35.2 cr last year q2.<br /><br />as expected its value has almost hit its 52 week low.<br /><br />are its business fundamentals good enough for a buy reco ?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01795797251315596597noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7148222695370746347.post-64001882576636992982010-08-17T12:12:15.390+05:302010-08-17T12:12:15.390+05:30Thanks for your comments, D'SOUZA.
The stock ...Thanks for your comments, D'SOUZA.<br /><br />The stock price didn't fall because of my analysis, but because of the worsening fundamentals and poor Q1 results. <br /><br />In the short-term, any stock can move up on a wave of sentiment and liquidity. But longer-term, the fundamentally strong get separated from the fundamentally weak.Subhankarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13248068905130821262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7148222695370746347.post-74229784040884160912010-08-16T21:43:28.299+05:302010-08-16T21:43:28.299+05:30i was just checking this stock on your blog , yes ...i was just checking this stock on your blog , yes your analysis of the stock is supported with the fall in price . At present its trading at 133.40. Those who moved out were lucky others better late than never.D'SOUZAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17760607689431853933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7148222695370746347.post-90833990560978458842010-03-19T08:24:19.819+05:302010-03-19T08:24:19.819+05:30@Alkesh: Thanks for the feedback and kind words.
...@Alkesh: Thanks for the feedback and kind words.<br /><br />@Ruy Guy: Appreciate your comments. Learning from one's mistakes and not repeating them are part of the evolution to becoming a successful investor.<br /><br />Holding on to a losing hand is not a good idea. If Punj Lloyd gets decimated, you will lose what little you can save by selling now.<br /><br />@Tanuj Goyal: Welcome to the blog! All readers have the liberty to present their point of view - and yours is particularly important because it reveals interesting details.<br /><br />However, I do not quite agree with your conclusions. The cash flow statement has 3 parts. Investing in a subsidiary falls under the second part: 'cash flows from investing activities'. It does not fall under the first part: 'cash flows from operations'. Negative cash flows from core operations usually indicate a poor business model. <br /><br />Any idea what the American subsidiary's business is? If it is bar code readers or smart cards then I will be very surprised!<br /><br />FCCB conversion at Rs 130 may not be a support if the stock price dips any further.Subhankarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13248068905130821262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7148222695370746347.post-34189662116034200752010-03-18T23:13:13.265+05:302010-03-18T23:13:13.265+05:30Hi, A few points about the financials of the compa...Hi, A few points about the financials of the company - (1) The negative cash operating flow accrues not because of the company has a flawed business practice, rather the reason is that it has committed a lot of money to its foreign subsidiaries (total 7 in number). A closer dig in the annual report reveals that the american sub. alone has been loaned $48mn (>INR 200 cr.)The result...its profit has grown 3 times due to application of those funds & this sub. accounted for $2.2mn net profit in FY09!! (2) Another point, the debt levels, although high, aren't too worrisome because most of it is in form of unsecured loans (mainly zero coupon FCCBs, the point I want to bring abt is that the conversion price of INR 130 shall act as a support for share price of the company and diluted EPS, which accounts for dilution due to conversion of debt to equity, was pretty tempting at INR15 for FY08 (FY09 was much lower at abt INR7, can be treated as an outlier given the global turmoil, However, the last 3 quarters have shown great resilience with total EPS already past INR18!!!).<br />Not sure if I have the liberty of playing the Devil's advocate here, I believe the company has very sound fundamentals....it is in a fast growing business & the growth is visible in past 5 yrs' statements. Not just numbers, the company has expanded both organically & inorganically while maintaining profitability ratios...has presence in Telecom, Retail sectors and the Govt. UID program will only enhance its already healthy order book of >INR700 cr.Tanuj Goyalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10140390242038439760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7148222695370746347.post-73708752825077319372010-03-18T11:21:00.413+05:302010-03-18T11:21:00.413+05:30Thanks Subhankar babu! I got into Bartronics in th...Thanks Subhankar babu! I got into Bartronics in the midst of the hype and got rid of it when I made a 50% profit on it. Then I read your blog on this. Thank God, I could get off!<br /><br />I'm not so lucky with Punj Llyod though...at current price, it doesn't matter whether I sell it or hold it!<br /><br />Regards<br />Ruy GuyRuy Guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08863437525696295977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7148222695370746347.post-33090341477994919122010-03-18T08:51:09.997+05:302010-03-18T08:51:09.997+05:30A Very detailed explanation of fundamental & c...A Very detailed explanation of fundamental & clear advice.<br /><br />Much appreciated<br />Thanks a lotAlkeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03773507744618260681noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7148222695370746347.post-84868820453727825152010-03-18T08:37:37.566+05:302010-03-18T08:37:37.566+05:30Appreciate your comments, Prasad.
Not sure if the...Appreciate your comments, Prasad.<br /><br />Not sure if the business is all that great. They started off importing and selling bar code readers. Others are doing the same. Don't know if volumes justify manufacturing. Where is the 'moat'?<br /><br />Apparently they have a manufacturing set up for smart cards, which is a high-volume low-margin business. Main client is the Government, which is a poor paymaster. That could explain the negative operating cash flows.Subhankarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13248068905130821262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7148222695370746347.post-61788108974331482592010-03-18T00:28:39.776+05:302010-03-18T00:28:39.776+05:30Hey, Thanks for nice and detailed analysis. Someth...Hey, Thanks for nice and detailed analysis. Something sure look fishy here... Just unable to understand the recent proposed allottment of warrants convertible @ 232 Rs/Share to promoters. My take, a good business which is financially not managed so well... Would like to here more from you on this one...Prasadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792227482753058617noreply@blogger.com